4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 40

Baltimore Ravens 33 – San Francisco 49ers 12

What Actually Happened

(10:30) 11-J.Stout punts 30 yards to SF 10, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 10-R.Bell.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.05 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -0.32 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP