Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 69

Baltimore Ravens 33 – San Francisco 49ers 19

(4:45) 11-J.Stout punts 44 yards to SF 25, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-R.Bell to SF 36 for 11 yards (30-T.Simpson).

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.72 EP
59% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model