Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 63

San Francisco 49ers 19 – Baltimore Ravens 33

What Actually Happened

(3:50) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 19-D.Samuel to SF 46 for 9 yards (44-M.Humphrey; 58-M.Pierce). Baltimore challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP

What Happened

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.87 EP
61% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 63, worth -2.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.30 EP