4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 17 at the 17

San Francisco 49ers 19 – Baltimore Ravens 33

What Actually Happened

(1:09) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle intended for 85-G.Kittle INTERCEPTED by 32-M.Williams at BAL 0. 32-M.Williams to BAL 22 for 22 yards (78-B.Bartch).

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
What Happened
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.34 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 17, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 27, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.85 EP