4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 27

San Francisco 49ers 2 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(6:03) 4-J.Moody 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +5.00 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 27, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 37, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model