Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 80

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Miami Dolphins 3

(7:34) 5-B.Anger punts 61 yards to MIA 19, Center-44-T.Sieg. 0-B.Berrios to MIA 35 for 16 yards (89-P.Hendershot).

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.30 EP
62% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 80, worth -4.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model