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DAL Away

Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
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MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
Sunday 2023-12-24 · 16:25 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain Spread 1.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

DAL
47.7%
MIA
52.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.200 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • MIA defense: -0.192 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +0.187 vs Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.142 EPA/dropback
  • MIA offense: +0.023 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 23
–
MIA 24
Projected margin: MIA by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

DAL

Johnathan Hankins DT Out Knee
Tyron Smith T Doubtful Back
Viliami Fehoko DE Questionable Knee
Matt Waletzko T Questionable Shoulder
Malik Hooker S Questionable Ankle
Zack Martin G Questionable Thigh

MIA

Robert Hunt G Out Hamstring
Elijah Campbell S Questionable Knee
Tyreek Hill WR Questionable Ankle
Jevon Holland S Questionable Knee
Xavien Howard CB Questionable Hip
Austin Jackson T Questionable Oblique
Emmanuel Ogbah DE Questionable Hamstring
Cam Smith CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 20
–
MIA 22

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:55 FG MIA (2:55) 7-J.Sanders 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. DAL 0 – MIA 3
  • Q1 01:41 TD DAL (1:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – MIA 3
  • Q2 04:36 FG MIA (4:36) 7-J.Sanders 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. DAL 7 – MIA 6
  • Q2 00:21 TD MIA (:21) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 31-R.Mostert for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 7 – MIA 12
  • Q3 09:04 FG MIA (9:04) 7-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. DAL 7 – MIA 16
  • Q3 05:32 FG DAL (5:32) 17-B.Aubrey 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 10 – MIA 16
  • Q3 01:28 FG MIA (1:28) 7-J.Sanders 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. DAL 10 – MIA 19
  • Q4 12:35 FG DAL (12:35) 17-B.Aubrey 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 13 – MIA 19
  • Q4 03:33 TD DAL (3:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-B.Cooks for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [43-A.Van Ginkel]. DAL 19 – MIA 19
  • Q4 00:02 FG MIA (:02) 7-J.Sanders 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. DAL 20 – MIA 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 2 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 72%

    (9:22) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson to MIA 11 for 20 yards (29-B.Jones).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 13 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 52%

    (2:55) 7-J.Sanders 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (11:06) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short left to 11-C.Wilson.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:34) 5-B.Anger punts 61 yards to MIA 19, Center-44-T.Sieg. 0-B.Berrios to MIA 35 for 16 yards (89-P.Hendershot).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 5 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 65%

    (4:36) 7-J.Sanders 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (2:34) 5-B.Anger punts 60 yards to MIA 13, Center-44-T.Sieg. 0-B.Berrios ran ob at MIA 29 for 16 yards (86-L.Schoonmaker).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 9 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:53) 16-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to DAL 2, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-22-E.Campbell.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 9 at the 97
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (12:00) 5-B.Anger punts 57 yards to MIA 40, Center-44-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 3 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 60%

    (9:04) 7-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 11 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 84%

    (5:32) 17-B.Aubrey 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 7 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 93%

    (1:28) 7-J.Sanders 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 3 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 94%

    (12:35) 17-B.Aubrey 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (11:17) 16-J.Bailey punts 53 yards to DAL 29, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 9-K.Turpin ran ob at DAL 31 for 2 yards (22-E.Campbell; 41-C.Tindall).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 2 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 40%

    (8:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to MIA 32 for 11 yards (25-X.Howard).