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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 34

Miami Dolphins 3 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(4:36) 7-J.Sanders 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.10 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 34, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.66 EP
What Happened
  • 65% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 44, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model