Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 97

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Miami Dolphins 13

(12:00) 5-B.Anger punts 57 yards to MIA 40, Center-44-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.57 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.12 EP
58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 97, worth -6.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model