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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 36

Miami Dolphins 13 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(9:04) 7-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.86 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 36, worth -1.79 EP
KICK +0.26 EP
What Happened
  • 60% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP