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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 15

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Miami Dolphins 19

What Actually Happened

(12:35) 17-B.Aubrey 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.03 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 15, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP