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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 13 at the 39

Miami Dolphins 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(2:55) 7-J.Sanders 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.52 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 39, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.12 EP
What Happened
  • 52% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 48, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT +0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model