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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 67

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(12:14) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to ATL 19, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 20-D.Alford pushed ob at ATL 27 for 8 yards (37-A.Speed).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.86 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 67, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 25, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model