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Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
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ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
Sunday 2023-12-24 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

IND
47.7%
ATL
52.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: -0.079 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • ATL defense: -0.097 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to IND: Taylor Heinicke (ATL) -0.043 vs Gardner Minshew (IND) -0.004 EPA/dropback (ATL starting Taylor Heinicke in place of Desmond Ridder)

Predicted Final Score

IND 21
–
ATL 22
Projected margin: ATL by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

IND

Jack Anderson C Out Illness
Segun Olubi LB Out Hip
Braden Smith T Out Knee
Zack Moss RB Questionable Forearm
Michael Pittman WR Questionable Shoulder

ATL

Keith Smith FB Doubtful Ankle
Bud Dupree LB Questionable Back
Kaleb McGary T Questionable Knee
David Onyemata DT Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 10
–
ATL 29

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:26 TD IND (9:26) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – ATL 0
  • Q1 07:46 TD ATL (7:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep left to 8-K.Pitts for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 7 – ATL 6
  • Q2 03:26 FG ATL (3:26) 6-Y.Koo 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. IND 7 – ATL 10
  • Q2 00:10 FG ATL (:10) 6-Y.Koo 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. IND 7 – ATL 13
  • Q3 11:20 TD ATL (11:20) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier right end for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 7 – ATL 19
  • Q3 04:27 FG IND (4:27) 7-M.Gay 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 10 – ATL 20
  • Q4 14:10 FG ATL (14:10) 6-Y.Koo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. IND 10 – ATL 23
  • Q4 05:49 FG ATL (5:49) 6-Y.Koo 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. IND 10 – ATL 26
  • Q4 02:00 FG ATL (2:00) 6-Y.Koo 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. IND 10 – ATL 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 17 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 58%

    (2:17) 8-R.Sanchez punts 38 yards to ATL 3, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-35-C.Lammons.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (15:00) 13-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to IND 18, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 1-J.Downs.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 6 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (12:14) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to ATL 19, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 20-D.Alford pushed ob at ATL 27 for 8 yards (37-A.Speed).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 3 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (10:17) 13-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to IND 22, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 1-J.Downs.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 10 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:45) 8-R.Sanchez punts 52 yards to ATL 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 20-D.Alford to ATL 14 for no gain (37-A.Speed).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 85%

    (6:05) (Shotgun) 84-C.Patterson left tackle to IND 25 for 2 yards (52-S.Ebukam).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (3:26) 6-Y.Koo 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:00) 8-R.Sanchez punts 55 yards to ATL 22, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 20-D.Alford to ATL 25 for 3 yards (83-K.Granson).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 10 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 95%

    (4:27) 7-M.Gay 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 9 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 90%

    (14:10) 6-Y.Koo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (12:17) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short left to 83-K.Granson pushed ob at ATL 43 for 11 yards (3-J.Bates).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 5 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 65%

    (10:10) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass incomplete short middle to 2-D.Montgomery (3-J.Bates, 34-C.Phillips).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 3 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (8:41) 13-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to IND 16, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 7 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 94%

    (5:49) 6-Y.Koo 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 17 at the 82 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.36 EP
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:55) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass incomplete deep right to 2-D.Montgomery.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 7 at the 7 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (2:00) 6-Y.Koo 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.