4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 17 at the 41

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(2:17) 8-R.Sanchez punts 38 yards to ATL 3, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-35-C.Lammons.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.15 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 41, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model