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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 18 at the 34

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(6:25) 10-B.McManus 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.65 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.78 EP
KICK +0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model