Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- TB offense: +0.059 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
- JAX offense: -0.038 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
- TB defense: +0.048 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 16
JAX
TB
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:25 FG TB (7:25) 4-C.McLaughlin 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. JAX 0 – TB 3
- Q2 12:58 TD TB (12:58) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – TB 9
- Q2 02:30 FG TB (2:30) 4-C.McLaughlin 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. JAX 0 – TB 13
- Q2 00:51 TD TB (:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – TB 19
- Q3 11:35 TD TB (11:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-R.White up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – TB 26
- Q3 03:54 FG TB (3:54) 4-C.McLaughlin 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. JAX 0 – TB 30
- Q3 00:57 TD JAX (:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 0-C.Ridley for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – TB 30
- Q4 04:40 TD JAX (4:40) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass short right to 0-C.Ridley for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 12 – TB 30
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 TB 4th & 6 at the 6Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EPp(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%
(7:25) 4-C.McLaughlin 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
-
Q2 TB 4th & 2 at the 18Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57% p(FG) 92%
(15:00) (Shotgun) 1-R.White left end to JAX 14 for 4 yards (23-F.Oluokun).
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Q2 JAX 4th & 18 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 68%
(6:25) 10-B.McManus 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
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Q2 TB 4th & 4 at the 13Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 96%
(2:30) 4-C.McLaughlin 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
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Q2 JAX 4th & 11 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(:24) 9-L.Cooke punts 65 yards to TB 16, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 22 for 6 yards (89-L.Farrell).
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Q3 JAX 4th & 13 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 52%
(9:26) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 39-J.Agnew.
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Q3 TB 4th & 10 at the 33Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 70%
(3:54) 4-C.McLaughlin 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
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Q3 JAX 4th & 1 at the 51Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 24%
(2:49) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles right end pushed ob at TB 49 for 2 yards (0-Y.Diaby).
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Q4 TB 4th & 6 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(13:42) 5-J.Camarda punts 51 yards to JAX 20, Center-97-Z.Triner. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 18 for -2 yards (19-D.Moore).
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Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 26Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58% p(FG) 84%
(11:38) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Godwin.
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Q4 JAX 4th & 19 at the 19Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.98 EPp(convert) 21% p(FG) 92%
(8:23) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass incomplete deep right to 0-C.Ridley (27-Z.McCollum).
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Q4 TB 4th & 16 at the 87Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(5:55) 5-J.Camarda punts 50 yards to JAX 37, Center-97-Z.Triner. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 49 for 12 yards (97-Z.Triner).