Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 81

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

(:24) 9-L.Cooke punts 65 yards to TB 16, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 22 for 6 yards (89-L.Farrell).

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.56 EP
65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model