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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 33

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(3:54) 4-C.McLaughlin 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.53 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 33, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 43, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model