Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 71

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6

(13:42) 5-J.Camarda punts 51 yards to JAX 20, Center-97-Z.Triner. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 18 for -2 yards (19-D.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
55% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 71, worth -4.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model