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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 16 at the 87

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6

What Actually Happened

(5:55) 5-J.Camarda punts 50 yards to JAX 37, Center-97-Z.Triner. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 49 for 12 yards (97-Z.Triner).

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.15 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 87, worth -4.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 45, worth -1.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model