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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 67

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(13:24) 5-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to LV 25, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 3-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 67, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 25, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP