4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
LV Away

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Antonio Pierce
@
KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Monday 2023-12-25 · 13:00 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US 🌧 Rain Spread 11.0 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

LV
28.8%
KC
71.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.141 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.132 vs Aidan O'Connell (LV) -0.094 EPA/dropback
  • KC defense: -0.054 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • LV defense: -0.103 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • LV on 3 more days rest than KC

Predicted Final Score

LV 18
–
KC 24
Projected margin: KC by 6 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

LV

Michael Mayer TE Out Toe
Josh Jacobs RB Questionable Quadricep
Brandon Facyson CB Questionable Shin
Jesper Horsted TE Questionable Hamstring
Jack Jones CB Questionable Knee
Kolton Miller T Questionable Shoulder
D.J. Turner WR Questionable Shoulder

KC

Jerick McKinnon RB Out Groin
Donovan Smith T Out Neck
Kadarius Toney WR Out Hip
Mecole Hardman WR Out Thumb

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 20
–
KC 14

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:21 FG LV (1:21) 2-D.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 3 – KC 0
  • Q2 07:40 TD KC (7:40) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 10-I.Pacheco. 10-I.Pacheco left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 3 – KC 6
  • Q2 05:00 TD LV (5:00) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 10-I.Pacheco. 10-I.Pacheco FUMBLES (Aborted) at KC 8, RECOVERED by LV-91-B.Nichols at KC 8. 91-B.Nichols for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 9 – KC 7
  • Q2 04:55 TD LV (4:55) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 84-Ju.Watson INTERCEPTED by 18-J.Jones at KC 33. 18-J.Jones for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 15 – KC 7
  • Q3 00:27 FG LV (:27) 2-D.Carlson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 20 – KC 7
  • Q4 02:48 TD KC (2:48) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 84-Ju.Watson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 20 – KC 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 14 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (11:31) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to KC 36, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 17-R.James to KC 49 for 13 yards (50-J.Bobenmoyer). PENALTY on LV-36-C.Bolton, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at KC 49.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 17 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 20%

    (10:13) 5-T.Townsend punts 46 yards to LV 7, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-2-J.Williams.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 4 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (1:21) 2-D.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (13:24) 5-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to LV 25, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 3-D.Carter.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:02) 6-A.Cole punts 49 yards to KC 26, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 17-R.James.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (5:09) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to KC 13, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 5 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 22%

    (2:43) (Punt formation) 5-T.Townsend pass short left to 84-Ju.Watson ran ob at LV 41 for 11 yards.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 5 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 92%

    (:09) 7-H.Butker 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 7 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 22%

    (12:53) 6-A.Cole punts 34 yards to KC 18, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds. PENALTY on KC-2-J.Williams, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at KC 18.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (8:46) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end to KC 37 for 7 yards (18-J.Jones).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 5 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 44%

    (5:27) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep left to 4-R.Rice [90-J.Tillery]. Penalty on KC-87-T.Kelce, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 12 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:55) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to KC 9, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 17-R.James to KC 19 for 10 yards (19-D.Turner; 22-A.Abdullah).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 9 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:52) 5-T.Townsend punts 22 yards to KC 42, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 10 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 93%

    (:27) 2-D.Carlson 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (9:52) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 4-R.Rice (39-N.Hobbs).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (6:14) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to KC 31, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 17-R.James to KC 31 for no gain (19-D.Turner).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 2 at the 61 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (4:47) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end to KC 42 for 3 yards (18-J.Jones).