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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 57

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(5:09) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to KC 13, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.56 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 57, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 17, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model