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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 43

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(5:27) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep left to 4-R.Rice [90-J.Tillery]. Penalty on KC-87-T.Kelce, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.32 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 43, worth -2.13 EP
KICK -0.64 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model