Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 80

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

(2:52) 5-T.Townsend punts 22 yards to KC 42, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.24 EP
63% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 80, worth -4.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model