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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 61

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

What Actually Happened

(4:47) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end to KC 42 for 3 yards (18-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.50 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 61, worth -3.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 20, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model