4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 14

New England Patriots 0 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(13:33) 37-C.Ryland 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.20 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 14, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model