4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
NE Away

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2023-12-24 · 20:15 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.0 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

NE
30.2%
DEN
69.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: -0.140 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.070 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.037 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.078 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • QB edge to DEN: Russell Wilson (DEN) -0.056 vs Bailey Zappe (NE) -0.133 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

NE 17
–
DEN 22
Projected margin: DEN by 5 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

NE

Jabrill Peppers S Out Hamstring
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR Out Ankle
Rhamondre Stevenson RB Out Ankle
Conor McDermott T Questionable Concussion
Christian Barmore DT Questionable Shoulder
Ja'Whaun Bentley LB Questionable Knee
Trenton Brown T Questionable Ankle
Hunter Henry TE Questionable Knee
Anfernee Jennings LB Questionable Illness
Jonathan Jones CB Questionable Knee
Matt Slater WR Questionable Hamstring
Jahlani Tavai LB Questionable Ankle

DEN

Nik Bonitto LB Out Knee
Greg Dulcich TE Out Hamstring
Alex Palczewski T Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 26
–
DEN 23

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:20 TD DEN (5:20) 33-J.Williams right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – DEN 6
  • Q2 13:33 FG NE (13:33) 37-C.Ryland 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NE 3 – DEN 7
  • Q3 09:54 TD NE (9:54) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short right to 15-E.Elliott for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 9 – DEN 7
  • Q3 01:41 TD NE (1:41) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short right to 88-M.Gesicki for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-B.Browning]. NE 15 – DEN 7
  • Q3 01:34 TD NE 37-C.Ryland kicks 66 yards from NE 35 to DEN -1. 19-M.Mims MUFFS catch, and recovers at DEN 4. 19-M.Mims to DEN 9 for 5 yards (30-M.Mapu). FUMBLES (30-M.Mapu), RECOVERED by NE-22-C.Davis at DEN 1. 22-C.Davis for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 22 – DEN 7
  • Q4 08:39 TD DEN (8:39) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 85-L.Krull for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 23 – DEN 13
  • Q4 02:59 TD DEN (2:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 89-B.Johnson for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-2-J.Mills was injured during the play. NE 23 – DEN 21
  • Q4 00:07 FG NE (:07) 37-C.Ryland 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. NE 26 – DEN 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 99%

    (13:23) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams right guard to NE 1 for 1 yard (33-A.Jennings).

  • Q1 NE 4th & 7 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (11:56) 17-B.Baringer punts 47 yards to DEN 48, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-M.Mims to NE 46 for 6 yards (3-M.Wilson).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 6 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 48%

    (10:24) 9-R.Dixon punts 32 yards to NE 10, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 27-M.Bryant to NE 15 for 5 yards (57-B.Niemann; 37-R.Moss).

  • Q1 NE 4th & 1 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (8:18) 17-B.Baringer punts 53 yards to DEN 23, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at NE 25 for 52 yards (17-B.Baringer).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 4 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 95%

    (13:33) 37-C.Ryland 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 22%

    (9:28) 17-B.Baringer punts 40 yards to DEN 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 13 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 79%

    (:38) 37-C.Ryland 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 10 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:50) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to NE 30, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 27-M.Bryant.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 18 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (7:49) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to NE 24, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 27-M.Bryant ran ob at NE 31 for 7 yards (40-J.Strnad).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 6 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (6:17) 17-B.Baringer punts 51 yards to DEN 14, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at DEN 15 for 1 yard (53-C.Elliss).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (15:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to NE 37, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 27-M.Bryant MUFFS catch, recovered by NE-41-B.Schooler at NE 38.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 6 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:19) 17-B.Baringer punts 41 yards to DEN 17, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (11:06) 3-R.Wilson up the middle to DEN 41 for 2 yards (8-J.Bentley).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (6:39) 17-B.Baringer punts 45 yards to DEN 22, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 16 at the 81 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (1:50) 17-B.Baringer punts 42 yards to DEN 39, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 13 at the 64 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:09) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to NE 19, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-41-D.Sanders.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 38 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 59%

    (:07) 37-C.Ryland 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.