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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 53

New England Patriots 3 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(9:28) 17-B.Baringer punts 40 yards to DEN 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.63 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 53, worth -3.09 EP
KICK -1.96 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.94 EP
PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 15, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP