4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 13 at the 29

New England Patriots 3 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(:38) 37-C.Ryland 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.18 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 29, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 39, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model