Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 18 at the 70

Denver Broncos 7 – New England Patriots 9

(7:49) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to NE 24, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 27-M.Bryant ran ob at NE 31 for 7 yards (40-J.Strnad).

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.81 EP
74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 70, worth -3.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model