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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 18 at the 83

Denver Broncos 7 – New England Patriots 23

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to NE 37, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 27-M.Bryant MUFFS catch, recovered by NE-41-B.Schooler at NE 38.

The Three Options

GO -2.92 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.87 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 83, worth -4.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 41, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model