Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 58

New England Patriots 23 – Denver Broncos 7

(13:19) 17-B.Baringer punts 41 yards to DEN 17, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.24 EP
61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 58, worth -3.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model