4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 95

New England Patriots 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(11:56) 17-B.Baringer punts 47 yards to DEN 48, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-M.Mims to NE 46 for 6 yards (3-M.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -3.58 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth -0.15 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 95, worth -5.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

PUNT -3.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 53, worth -3.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model