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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 67

New England Patriots 23 – Denver Broncos 15

What Actually Happened

(6:39) 17-B.Baringer punts 45 yards to DEN 22, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.32 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 67, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 25, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP