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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 10

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 4-J.Elliott 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.06 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 10, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model