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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
@
PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
Monday 2023-12-25 · 16:30 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 14.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

NYG
25.0%
PHI
75.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.194 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to PHI: Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.134 vs Tommy DeVito (NYG) -0.184 EPA/dropback
  • PHI defense: +0.095 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • PHI offense: +0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • NYG defense: -0.079 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 19
–
PHI 26
Projected margin: PHI by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

NYG

Evan Neal T Out Ankle
Rakeem Nunez-Roches DT Out Knee
Gary Brightwell RB Questionable Hamstring
Lawrence Cager TE Questionable Groin
Dexter Lawrence DT Questionable Hamstring
A'Shawn Robinson DT Questionable Back

PHI

Zach Cunningham LB Out Knee
Landon Dickerson G Out Thumb
Darius Slay CB Out Knee
Avonte Maddox CB Out Pectoral
Nicholas Morrow LB Questionable Abdomen

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 25
–
PHI 33

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:28 TD PHI (12:28) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYG-96-T.Horne, Defensive Offside, declined. NYG 0 – PHI 6
  • Q1 08:08 FG NYG (8:08) 21-M.Crosby 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NYG 3 – PHI 7
  • Q2 14:56 FG PHI (14:56) 4-J.Elliott 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. NYG 3 – PHI 10
  • Q2 11:52 TD PHI (11:52) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 6-D.Smith for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 3 – PHI 16
  • Q2 00:04 FG PHI (:04) 4-J.Elliott 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. NYG 3 – PHI 20
  • Q3 13:44 TD NYG (13:44) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 9 – PHI 20
  • Q3 00:21 TD NYG (:21) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left intended for 88-D.Goedert INTERCEPTED by 22-A.Jackson at NYG 24. 22-A.Jackson for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PHI-1-J.Hurts, Horse Collar Tackle, 1 yard, enforced between downs. NYG 16 – PHI 20
  • Q4 11:11 TD PHI (11:11) (Shotgun) 0-D.Swift right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 18 – PHI 26
  • Q4 06:08 FG PHI (6:08) 4-J.Elliott 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. NYG 18 – PHI 30
  • Q4 05:32 TD NYG (5:32) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass deep left to 86-D.Slayton for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 24 – PHI 30
  • Q4 01:14 FG PHI (1:14) 4-J.Elliott 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. NYG 25 – PHI 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:35) 6-J.Gillan punts 41 yards to PHI 33, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 18-B.Covey pushed ob at NYG 13 for 54 yards (47-C.Brown).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 71%

    (8:08) 21-M.Crosby 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 1 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 62%

    (5:01) 1-J.Hurts left guard to NYG 35 for 3 yards (58-B.Okereke).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 5 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 79%

    (3:01) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert to NYG 24 for 6 yards (29-X.McKinney).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (14:56) 4-J.Elliott 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (13:02) 6-J.Gillan punts 31 yards to PHI 36, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 18-B.Covey pushed ob at PHI 48 for 12 yards (94-T.Fox).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 10 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:12) 6-J.Gillan punts 41 yards to PHI 22, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 18-B.Covey MUFFS catch, touched at PHI 21, and recovers at PHI 19. 18-B.Covey to PHI 19 for no gain (24-D.Belton).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 14 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:37) 10-B.Mann punts 54 yards to NYG 31, Center-45-R.Lovato. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 37 for 6 yards (21-S.Brown; 47-B.Smith).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (7:26) 26-S.Barkley right guard to PHI 44 for 10 yards (32-R.Blankenship).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 69%

    (4:59) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left guard to PHI 30 for 5 yards (57-B.VanSumeren).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 21
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 91%

    (2:50) 26-S.Barkley up the middle to PHI 25 for -4 yards (7-H.Reddick).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (12:15) 10-B.Mann punts 54 yards to NYG 16, Center-45-R.Lovato. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 22 for 6 yards (45-R.Lovato). FUMBLES (45-R.Lovato), and recovers at NYG 20.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 9 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 31%

    (7:42) 6-J.Gillan punts 44 yards to PHI 6, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 51%

    (8:53) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass incomplete short right to 17-W.Robinson.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 6 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 85%

    (6:08) 4-J.Elliott 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 25 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 86%

    (1:14) 4-J.Elliott 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 46 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 41%

    (:26) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass deep left to 12-D.Waller to PHI 26 for 20 yards (22-K.Ringo).