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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 67

New York Giants 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(13:02) 6-J.Gillan punts 31 yards to PHI 36, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 18-B.Covey pushed ob at PHI 48 for 12 yards (94-T.Fox).

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 67, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 25, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP