Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 63

New York Giants 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(10:12) 6-J.Gillan punts 41 yards to PHI 22, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 18-B.Covey MUFFS catch, touched at PHI 21, and recovers at PHI 19. 18-B.Covey to PHI 19 for no gain (24-D.Belton).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.60 EP
68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 63, worth -3.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model