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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 35

New York Giants 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(4:59) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left guard to PHI 30 for 5 yards (57-B.VanSumeren).

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.61 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 35, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.62 EP
  • 69% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 45, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model