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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
New York Giants
4th & 1 at the 21
New York Giants 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 17
What Actually Happened
(2:50) 26-S.Barkley up the middle to PHI 25 for -4 yards (7-H.Reddick).
The Three Options
GO
+2.60 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.42 EP
- 35% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.74 EP
KICK
+1.60 EP
- 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
- 9% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 31, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT
-0.30 EP
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
