4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 50

New York Giants 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

What Actually Happened

(7:42) 6-J.Gillan punts 44 yards to PHI 6, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.09 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 50, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.39 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model