Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q4
New York Giants
4th & 1 at the 42
New York Giants 18 – Philadelphia Eagles 27
What Actually Happened
(8:53) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass incomplete short right to 17-W.Robinson.
The Three Options
GO
+1.40 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.00 EP
- 33% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 42, worth -1.89 EP
KICK
-0.24 EP
- 51% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
- 49% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT
-0.21 EP
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.21 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
