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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 26

Philadelphia Eagles 27 – New York Giants 18

What Actually Happened

(6:08) 4-J.Elliott 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.27 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 26, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 36, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model