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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 46

New York Giants 25 – Philadelphia Eagles 33

What Actually Happened

(:26) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass deep left to 12-D.Waller to PHI 26 for 20 yards (22-K.Ringo).

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +0.92 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 46, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.84 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 13, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.86 EP