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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 10

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(10:52) 5-J.Myers 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.32 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 10, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +0.99 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.07 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -1.01 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP