Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- SEA offense: -0.038 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
- SEA defense: +0.106 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- Ryan Tannehill (TEN): -0.024 EPA/dropback in prior starts (TEN starting Ryan Tannehill in place of Will Levis)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 16
SEA
TEN
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 14:18 TD TEN (14:18) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry pass short right to 85-C.Okonkwo for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – TEN 6
- Q2 10:52 FG SEA (10:52) 5-J.Myers 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 3 – TEN 7
- Q2 03:22 FG TEN (3:22) 6-N.Folk 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-13-T.Zentner. SEA 3 – TEN 10
- Q3 09:57 FG SEA (9:57) 5-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 6 – TEN 10
- Q4 12:15 TD SEA (12:15) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 14-D.Metcalf (23-T.Avery). Seattle challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 14-D.Metcalf for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 12 – TEN 10
- Q4 03:25 TD TEN (3:25) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 13 – TEN 16
- Q4 01:00 TD SEA (1:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 84-C.Parkinson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 19 – TEN 17
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 TEN 4th & 20 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(13:06) 13-T.Zentner punts 47 yards to SEA 38, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.
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Q1 SEA 4th & 11 at the 42Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 52%
(9:08) 4-M.Dickson punts 29 yards to TEN 13, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 12-M.Kinsey.
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Q1 TEN 4th & 4 at the 42Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 52%
(4:43) 13-T.Zentner punts 36 yards to SEA 6, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-40-A.Kendall.
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Q1 SEA 4th & 11 at the 95Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(2:38) 4-M.Dickson punts 63 yards to TEN 32, Center-41-C.Stoll. 12-M.Kinsey to TEN 43 for 11 yards (38-B.Russell).
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Q2 SEA 4th & 4 at the 10Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 97%
(10:52) 5-J.Myers 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
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Q2 TEN 4th & 8 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 95%
(3:22) 6-N.Folk 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-13-T.Zentner.
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Q2 SEA 4th & 19 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 37%
(:54) 4-M.Dickson punts 42 yards to TEN 6, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 12-M.Kinsey.
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Q3 SEA 4th & 8 at the 9Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%
(9:57) 5-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
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Q3 TEN 4th & 8 at the 42Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 52%
(3:50) 13-T.Zentner punts 34 yards to SEA 8, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas. PENALTY on SEA-31-D.Dallas, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 4 yards, enforced at SEA 8.
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Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 27Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 84%
(6:27) (No Huddle) 32-T.Spears up the middle to SEA 25 for 2 yards (55-D.Jones; 54-B.Wagner).