4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 15

Tennessee Titans 7 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(3:22) 6-N.Folk 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-13-T.Zentner.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.52 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 15, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model