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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 19 at the 48

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(:54) 4-M.Dickson punts 42 yards to TEN 6, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 12-M.Kinsey.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.68 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 48, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -0.60 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model